Beyond Brexit - Carnival or Carousel?

Captain Qahn's picture

Mark Carney's 'Beyond Brexit' ...   (with bolts on)

In short Carney's plan to cut interest rate and risk possible deflation is to stimulate the UK economy by .... devaluing the pound.

Adversely punishing pensioners ... annuities  market will be hit with wise olds deferring pension plans.

Bolt 1: Bonds ... Govt. Bonds fallen by 8% : "Falling gilt yields have swiftly sparked cuts to the already pitiful rates which retirees are offered to exchange a pension pot for an annuity, a type of insurance product that pays out an income until you die".  Old and  Guilty? Nope, these Bonds/Gilts are used by 'Widows & Orphan' funds as a safe haven for income investment and many younger folk will suffer too.  Basically you get less return for your money: Perhaps they should lower the annuity age to 30 and not 55... expect a huge surge in premium bonds.

Imports will become more expensive and exports cheaper. For those already committed to loans who have invested in hard assets rather than liquid, currency that is good news.  As Sterling devalues (since 2008 I estimated 20%) (don't forget economies are cyclic) wot Carney hopes to achieve is that savings will be out weighed by investment into goods, services, stocks shares... (see the Japanese model and more lately the China model)...  The risk is that sterling as a currency will go outward  (as seen by the fall last week,   (China has two currencies and many other states have currency restrictions).  Austerity measures for savers to spend their hard earned rather than hide it away don't work if you put the fear of god in them...  softer austerity or harsh reality is a political choice.

Right now IMV Carney is about to force recessional measures.   For the South of England who were recovering from the 2008 crash/recession  they will be hardest hit, with property market becoming stagnant.   However for many up North who had yet to feel the benefit of the so called 'recovery' this could be good news.  One nowt much will change, and two, those business that have survived have become leaner, meaner fitter and are more prepared  to face what May.

Bolt 2:  Reality Check?  The UK Current Account:  "The UK has had a continuous current account deficit since 1984. Since 2011, it has widened considerably. In the first three months of 2016, it was 6.9% of national income or £32.6bn. A current account deficit means a country depends on being able to borrow money overseas and on foreign companies wanting to invest in the UK..."  "...current account deficits "appear not to matter until, well, they suddenly do". And what would make them suddenly matter would be something that happened that made overseas companies think twice about investing in the UK. Or if there were a reduction in other countries' confidence in the pound - confidence is important if you are running a big current account deficit. If you try to run a current account deficit without confidence then you get a sterling crisis and the value of the pound falls further..."

This also goes someway to explain IMV the North/South divide over Corbyn.

Anyhow this is fag packet thought stuff.

This is also good news for the York Potash project as returning to a 'state of affairs' when the project was concieved (2008/9) jobs, investment, infrastructure now needed politically and economically  (was wondering if the will was fading with 'recovery' heading North) Is Brexit a good kick up the political backside to get this Northern project moving? "Chris Fraser, director of Sirius Minerals behind the York Potash mine project earmarked for Sneaton, said the exit was beneficial to them in terms of doing deals in the global market.  He said: “Volatility of the current markets does not change anything about our business. “We do not have any long term contracts within the EU.” He added that it would be easier to negotiate trade deals with developing countries as at the moment they have to be led by the EU and “simply don’t happen”. He added: “Once we are outside the EU, we can go back out and reinvestigate the Commonwealth ties which is where a lot of our product ends up going.”   One assumes the commitments for importing machinery, (TBM's), technical expertise etc etc are already in place following the recent announcement of contractors and the costs under the DFS are fixed give or take 10%. and these still hold?    

Mind if you haven't got a pot to pee in...  (Up the Khyber) ... "Cllr Dennett warned of job losses and a potential lack of money for reinvestment into industry and local groups and organisations. He told the Gazette: “There is a grave danger of another recession, and I fear that jobs in Whitby will be vulnerable. Unfortunately, if you lose your job, Scarborough JobMatch and Scarborough EnterpriseMatch will probably no longer be able to help you, as they depend on European money to survive and have so far already benefitted to the tune of 
£1.5 million. “We are fortunate enough to live in an area of outstandingly beautiful countryside, managed by our farmers who benefit from £4 billion a year of EU payments. “Can we be sure that this will continue?" The answer is erm no. 

Advertently SBC's build projects are almost complete,  Skardiborg in a bubble .... funding for the Cliff stabilisation etc may be vulnerable. (The Waterpark, Sports Village, Coventry University, Academy, Market Hall etc would cost a lot more tomorrow than yesterday.)  SBC's risk averse capital investment management may protect it from external forces. Though the Future of the Futurist remains open to challenges.... and the Local Plan may need adjusting depending on the outcome of Offshore Wind Turbines.  (Local authority credit ratings run on a par with Govt. ... so their credit rating will have dropped too... aka no more daft schemes or perhaps more diligence in strategic forward planning.)   

The goal posts for small business and SME's have been widened,  many EU funded charities will be foreclosed.  There will be many gaps opening in the free 'market'. Sad, for those reliant on 'charity' but good for those with their thinking caps on. CAPS ON!!!  Conscription to the NHS, voluntary services,  ... has already been happening via community payback.  Should this be expanded in future then that may give some credence and acceleration to the 'basic living income'.  Green.   

Not a good time to borrow money... as the criteria just got much harder.  Good for those already in lots of debt.  Thinking of moving house? Be cautious ... consider it a trap.  

Shooting Ducks.

NB:  Ignore the 'Modern Aristrocracy' & Black Market Economy  ... no doubt will rise exponentially on its own accord.

NB II:   Brown turned downs the Lib Dems...   and IMV that was because political cycles are as natural as economic ones. 

Tis all about the balance. ... With Theresa May installed as PM, will there be any need to remove the soft option that is Corbyn?  

Osborne may even get his Northern Powerhouse... dope on a soap ;-)

Brexit: Britain just got exciting. 

Wot do ya mean its not Texas?







Captain Qahn's picture

SXX: Chief Speaks

The Financial Times reports:

"Sirius Minerals’ chief executive said there were benefits for its planned potash mine after the UK’s vote to leave the EU, including potentially lower construction costs because of the fall in the value of sterling.

Costs for the project “have moved in our favour”, said Chris Fraser, the Australian former banker behind the Sirius project. “We are a dollar asset but a big part of the costs will be [paid in] sterling [for] labour … With lower sterling, we will be in a stronger position.”

While acknowledging that raising finance could be affected by the Brexit vote, Mr Fraser said the company was “in diligence” over structured finance for the first part of the project.

“We are targeting to be in a position to start construction in September … that is what we are working to achieve,” he said.

Any further savings would come on top of those announced by Sirius last month, when the group told investors that estimated construction costs for the project had fallen 18 per cent, from $3.6bn to $2.9bn. Sirius said the savings had been identified after talks with selected contractors since the company published a study with estimated costs in March.

Sirius fought a lengthy planning battle before winning permission last year to build the mine under the North Yorks Moors national park, one of the UK’s most protected landscapes.

The company has said its sales of polyhalite — a form of fertiliser — would make it one of the UK’s most significant exporters and provide jobs for decades. The mine is the largest to be proposed in Britain since the 1970s.

Most of the savings that Sirius now projects are connected to the mine’s first phase of construction, to sink shafts 1.5km deep. As a result, Sirius believes that it can build the initial phase of the mine for $1.1bn, one-third less than previously estimated.

So far the company — which has raised equity from shareholders and has a market capitalisation of £440m — has said it will use a mix of debt and further equity to finance its project, which also includes a 36km tunnel to transport the mined mineral to a nearby port."

Spose Frazer's got a subscription ...

Quills.... another ounce...  in sterlings.

Ah, So ... No Forked tongues ;-)

"The company planning to build one of Britain’s biggest mines hopes to raise money for the project within weeks and start construction in September, in spite of concern over financial market volatility following the Brexit referendum."


Benefitz Betty's picture

May & Amber v Deadweight

"Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom will battle it out to become the next leader of the Conservative Party after Michael Gove was eliminated from the contest.

After the second MPs' ballot, Home Secretary Mrs May finished with 199 votes, Energy Minister Mrs Leadsom 84 and Mr Gove, the justice secretary, 46.

Conservative members will now decide the winning candidate, with the result due on 9 September.

The winner will become the UK's second female prime minister."

Whoopii ...

But have they measured their mammory glands?

And wot became of 'I don't like a challenge'  JC?

Dawn ...

Captain Qahn's picture

JC ... Unleashed

"Jeremy Corbyn says he will ask his MPs to vote for the Article 50 Brexit process to begin, if the government is forced to seek Parliament's approval.

He said it was "very clear" his party accepted the referendum result.

Some shadow cabinet members are reportedly considering voting against triggering the UK's EU exit negotiations.

The Supreme Court will announce next Tuesday whether the government needs to seek Parliament's approval.

Ministers say they already have enough powers under the Royal Prerogative to go ahead with Brexit.

But campaigners argue that starting Brexit in this way would be undemocratic and unconstitutional.

'Different relationship'

In June's referendum, 51.9% of voters backed leaving the EU, while 48.1% supported remaining in the 28-nation group.

Mr Corbyn said: "It's very clear the referendum made a decision that Britain is to leave the European Union. It was not to destroy jobs and living standards or communities, but it was to leave the European Union and have a different relationship in the future.

"I have made it very clear that the Labour Party accepts and respects the decision of the British people. We will not block Article 50."

Asked if that meant he would be imposing a three-line whip - the strongest available sanction - on Labour MPs, requiring them to back Article 50, he said: "It means that all Labour MPs will be asked to vote in that direction next week or whenever the vote comes up."

The Guardian reports that four shadow cabinet ministers and several junior Labour spokespeople were considering defying Mr Corbyn and voting against Article 50 being invoked.

The Supreme Court's decision on whether a vote needs to take place follows a government appeal against a High Court ruling last autumn that MPs and peers should have to vote give their approval.

Following Mr Corbyn's comments, Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas said he was "trying to deny Labour MPs the chance to make their own principled choice on one of the most important decisions of the UK's recent history".

And Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron said Mr Corbyn was "actively helping" the government in its plans to leave the European single market, "at a huge cost to jobs and prosperity"."

Captain Qahn's picture

Economics: 'Stimulus Package'

Benefitz Betty's picture

Grafted ...

"...Mr Patel takes charge at a time when India has the fastest-growing major economy in the world and its currency, the rupee - which hit record lows in 2013 - is more stable.

And while there have been concerns about inflation rates creeping up as oil prices recover and food costs rise, many expect the central bank to cut interest rates later this year to help stimulate more growth...."

"Richard King, head of business research at The Andersons Centre, a farming business consultancy, explains: "The UK beef sector, say, sees a lot of imports from Ireland - suddenly they're more expensive.

"So that just allows our prices internally to rise. But if you're exporting wheat to Spain, for example, our grain looks cheaper. It is noticeable out there already."

Wot .. not ?

Captain Qahn's picture

Brexit ... Begging Britons

"There has been no Armageddon, the Brexiters say, but economies, like supertankers that respond slowly to changes of steering direction, exhibit slow responses – especially to an event that has yet to happen. Nobody economically literate thought that unemployment, always a lagging indicator, would immediately soar in the weeks after the vote. Nor would tumbleweed now be blowing through high streets...."

"Further, the world’s companies come here to enjoy the UK “aircraft carrier” effect – exporting into the EU single market from an exceptionally business-friendly environment. Nearly 500 multinational companies have their European or global HQ in Britain – five times more than Germany – a major boost to our business services and commercial property industries alike..."

"It could even be worse. Economies can get trapped in vicious downward spirals. Falling investment begets falling investment. A weakening commercial property market spells weakened bank balance sheets, and potential credit constraints. What kind of recovery will happen after the inevitable slowdown or recession next year? What will be the regime for agriculture, for science, for start-ups, for aerospace, for financial services? Who has confidence in Messrs Johnson, Fox and Davis putting the interests of the economy and jobs before their ideological predilections?

We have been plunged into a mess. The EU never obstructed the vital structural changes to the British investment and innovation ecosystem that had to be made, in or out. Now we have to deliver those reforms beset by the disastrous uncertainty of leaving the world’s greatest trading bloc. For what? Not to co-operate with our European neighbours in what, in my view, is a noble cause? To unleash the most disturbing outburst of anti-foreigner sentiment I have witnessed in my adult life?"

Captain Qahn's picture

£:$ - Fat Fingers


"A “fat finger” error by a trader or computerised chain reaction was thought responsible as the pound plunged to a new three-decade low during “insane” early trading in Asia on Friday...

The pound fell almost 10% at one point to US$1.1378, prompting confusion among traders who were struggling to identify any news or market event that could have been to blame."




B:-? Nice one Bob.

Captain Qahn's picture

Brexit Booms

"...In this respect, the Governor’s membership of the “global elite” has its upsides, for Mr Carney is hugely respected internationally and is therefore vital to the thin veneer of credibility that supports the nation’s ever more precarious finances. Let it not be forgotten that this week is the fortieth anniversary of Britain’s shameful, Greek style bailout by the International Monetary Fund. Back then, the national debt was less than 50 per cent of GDP; today it is closer to 100 per cent.

Of course Carney and the Bank are not blameless. Since the financial crisis, monetary policy has entered uncharted waters which were never anticipated when governments surrendered vitally important tools of economic management to the discretion of central banks. Unconventional monetary policy has unintentionally taken the Bank of England into areas that might more properly belong to the political sphere. In the words of Mrs May: “People with assets have got richer. People without them have suffered.” What she didn’t mention is that two thirds of these gains have gone to the over-65s, the very cohort that tends to complain most vociferously about ultra-low interest rates...."

fascinating ...


Captain Black's picture

Hearts At Stake

Chaos Theories
"President Barack Obama has urged Democrats of all ethnic backgrounds to get out and vote for Hillary Clinton, warning that the fate of the US republic - and the world - is at stake.
He said her Republican opponent Donald Trump was a threat to hard-earned civil rights.
President Obama was speaking at a rally in North Carolina.
Mr Trump said Mr Obama should stop campaigning for Mrs Clinton and focus on running the country.
"The bottom line is, no-one wants four more years of Obama," he told supporters in Pensacola, Florida.
He said Mrs Clinton had become "unhinged" in recent days...."
Brakes :
"Parliament must vote on whether the UK can start the process of leaving the EU, the High Court has ruled.
This means the government cannot trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty - beginning formal exit-negotiations with the EU - on its own.
Theresa May says the referendum - and existing ministerial powers - mean MPs do not need to vote, but campaigners called this unconstitutional.
The government is appealing, with a further hearing expected next month...."
Congratulations ... once again.
Oh. OK:
lol ; -!
Hmmmm ...

Captain Qahn's picture

Gina Mania II

"...The prime minister urged MPs and peers to "remember" the referendum result.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage warned of protests on the streets if the decision in favour of Brexit was ignored.

But the campaigner who brought the High Court case said it would stop ministers acting like a "tin-pot dictatorship".

Judges ruled on Thursday that Parliament should vote on when the government can trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, starting formal negotiations with the EU...."

Lazy Labour ...

A JC 'poppet' more interested in power and protectionism ... over principles and policy.

Bring it on ...

Mind, unless its written on the side of a bus :-)




Captain Qahn's picture

Feeding Time



"At 37,000 feet, above the roar of the engines propelling the prime minister's official RAF Voyager aircraft towards Delhi, Theresa May's verdict on the raging "Press v judges" dispute was heard loud and clear in the crowded cabin.

"I value the independence of the judiciary," she said. "I also value the freedom of the press."

The latter was "important to democracy", she added."


Benefitz Betty's picture

EU: Dimensions on Deficit

"The UK trade deficit widened to £5.2bn in September from £3.8bn in August, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Exports decreased by £0.2bn, while imports increased by £1.2bn.

The widening between imports and exports was in part driven by a record £8.7bn deficit with the European Union.

Although the pound fell sharply after the Brexit vote, the ONS said there was little direct evidence so far of currency effects on trade.

After June's referendum, the pound fell more than 10% against the dollar and the euro, hitting a 31-year low against the dollar, and lost further ground in October to hit its weakest-ever level against a basket of major currencies.

However, ONS statistician Hannah Finselbach said: "So far there is little evidence in the data of the lower pound feeding through into trade volume or prices."

Between the April-to-June and July-to-September quarters, the total trade deficit for goods and services narrowed by £1.6bn to £11bn.

There was a £4.5bn increase in goods exports and a £3.1bn increase in goods imports between the second and third quarters, partially offset by a £0.1bn decrease in services exports and a £0.3bn decrease in services imports.

Some manufacturers reported a jump in foreign demand after the pound's fall, but it can take time for this to show up in trade data.

In the three months to September, Britain's economy slowed much less than most economists had expected, with signs that it was supported by continued robust consumer spending."

Oh Dear .... Going Dutch?

Driving... deficiencies

Ah, so .... immature farming @ 3.31


Benefitz Betty's picture

Iron Maidens

"The UK's ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, has resigned.

Sir Ivan, appointed to the job by David Cameron in 2013, had been expected to play a key role in Brexit talks expected to start within months.

The government said Sir Ivan had quit early so a successor could be in place before negotiations start.

Last month the BBC revealed he had privately told ministers a UK-EU trade deal might take 10 years to finalise, sparking criticism from some MPs.

He told them this was also the view of the EU's other 27 member states..."

"China has launched a direct rail freight service to London, as part of its drive to develop trade and investment ties with Europe.

China Railway already runs services between China and other European cities, including Madrid and Hamburg.

The train will take about two weeks to cover the 12,000 mile journey and is carrying a cargo of clothes, bags and other household items.

It has the advantage of being cheaper than air freight and faster than sea...."

Choo Choo ...

Oh, OK:



Benefitz Betty's picture

The Shrink Age

"With EU farm subsidies accounting for more than half of UK farm income and the threat of hugely costly tariffs for exports of British produce, committee chairwoman Mrs Creagh, also called on the Government to explain what its plans are for farm subsidies once British farmers stop receiving payments in 2020.

The West Yorkshire MP said she was concerned that the Environment Secretary Andrea Leadsom gave the Committee no reassurance that there would be subsidies for farmers after Brexit.

And the Committee warned of farmers facing a “triple jeopardy”, as new trading relationships with the rest of the world could also cause increased competition from larger economies with lower animal welfare, food safety and environmental standards.

Mrs Creagh said: “Changes from Brexit could put our countryside, farming and wildlife at risk.

“UK farming faces significant risks - from a loss of subsidies and tariffs on farm exports, to increased competition from countries with weaker food, animal welfare and environmental standards. The Government must not trade away these key protections as we leave the EU. It should also give clarity over any future farm subsidies.”

Ah, so ... being 'daft' is not original ;-)

"...Duck has a sobering message: "The defend-at-all-costs mentality can't be maintained. I think economics will mean that less populated areas will have to be abandoned in the next two decades. My book attempts to explain the underlying processes, the inevitability of erosion."

"I'm not underestimating the emotional impact – people will lose generations of memories, as well as houses," he said. "There is a price you pay for living on an island and there will be winners and losers."

We also spoke about tsunamis and the UK, two things usually assumed not to coincide. But Duck said that 5,500 years ago, the Storegga landslide on the Norwegian coast triggered a giant wave that engulfed Orkney and Shetland, as well as hitting the eastern coasts of both Scotland and England."


Duct tape or bubble wrap ;-)

Captain Black's picture

Brixit Britain 'Boring' - Carney

"The immediate risk posed by Brexit to the UK economy has declined, the governor of the Bank of England has told MPs.

Mark Carney said that action by the Bank before and after the vote to leave the European Union had reduced the danger to the country's financial stability.

He added, however, that the overall level of risk was still "elevated".

The risk was greater for continental Europe than for the UK, he said.

The governor also told members of the Treasury Select Committee that a period of transition was "highly advisable".

"If there is not such a transition put in place, in our view it will have consequences. We will work to mitigate those consequences as much as possible," he said.

Mr Carney said that the UK should concentrate on stable access to financial markets after Brexit. The financial services industry could suffer "outsize" consequences from losing only some of its access..."

Fat cats?


Captain Black's picture

Nej Ja Land

" ... Ann Linde, the Swedish minister for EU affairs and trade, said she was shocked by the uncertainty and xenophobia experienced by Swedes in the UK since the referendum.

She said the future of an estimated 100,000 Swedish people in Britain and 30,000 British people in Sweden had to be urgently dealt with. She said: “This is one of the very most important issues and we have to solve it in a very constructive way in the first part of the negotiations.”

Smoking ....






Did anyone ask WD about a ski slope on the Sports Village roof? Did anyone ask WD about reclamation, storage, salvage of the Theatre? 

Due process.

Off Piste.



Captain Qahn's picture

The Walks

MPs have rejected the amendment on Euratom by 336 votes to 287...

MPs have rejected the amendment on the residency rights of EU nationals 332 votes to 290...

MPs have vote 337 votes to 288 to reject Chuka Umunna's amendment on the NHS...

Labour's amendment on tax evasion is defeated 336 votes to 289.

Gibraltar Amendment defeated 338 votes to 288.

Clive Lewis, shadow business, energy and industrial strategy secretary, has resigned from the shadow cabinet.

Lewis became the third shadow cabinet member to quit after Corbyn’s decision to whip his MPs to back Brexit.

Shadow environment secretary Rachael Maskell, shadow equalities minister Dawn Butler and shadow Welsh secretary Jo Stevens have already resigned in opposition to the bill.


The British Egg Industry Council said the eggs will be downgraded to “barn produced” if they were unable to go back outside by the end of February.

Captain Qahn's picture

A New Line Up

The Sound of Crickets 'could be lost'

The park that shoots people to protect rhinos

Ah, so  ...

"One of Germany's most senior banking regulators has warned London that it is likely to lose its role as "the gateway to Europe" for vital financial services.

Dr Andreas Dombret, executive board member for the German central bank, the Bundesbank, said that even if banking rules were "equivalent" between the UK and the rest of the European Union, that was "miles away from access to the single market".

Mr Dombret's comments were made at a private meeting of German businesses and banks organised by Boston Consulting Group in Frankfurt earlier this week.

They give a clear - and rare - insight into Germany's approach as Britain starts the process of leaving the European Union.

And that approach is hawkish...."



Captain Qahn's picture

Oh Well

"Former German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has been elected president by a parliamentary assembly.

The Social Democrat, 61, is one of Germany's most popular politicians.

The post is largely ceremonial, but the president represents Germany abroad and is seen as carrying moral weight.

During the US election campaign, the usually circumspect ex-lawyer described Donald Trump as a "hate preacher" and predicted more challenging relations with Washington.

He has also criticised those who "make politics with fear", and spoken out against right-wing populism.


Mr Steinmeier was chosen by the Federal Assembly meeting in parliament in Berlin.

He won 931 out of 1,260 votes.

Lawmakers and representatives from various social fields delegated by Germany's 16 states are represented in the assembly.

Electors include Joachim Loew, the national football coach, and Olivia Jones, a colourful drag queen sent to vote by the Green Party in Lower Saxony."