York Potash Project - Some Enchanted Evening ...

20 Comments

Captain Qahn's picture

CNP - Can't Cut it ...

http://www.whitbygazette.co.uk/news/local/national-park-can-t-cope-due-t...

"It’s capacity to deal with plant or animal disease - such as foot and mouth which caused widespread devastation in rural communities back in 2001 - had also been “greatly reduced”.

The revelations have come via a Freedom of Information request submitted in April by the Campaign For National Parks. The group submitted the F.O.I to all ten of the UK’s National Park authorities in relation to the effects of the cuts which were first brought in five years ago.

The Authority has seen funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) reduced from £5.7m in 2010/1 to £3.7m in 2015/6 – a 35% fall in real terms. in addition to cuts from the Department of Communities and Local Government.

Since 2010 funding to the tune of 40 per cent has been lost and in turn there has also been a 27%reduction in staff numbers.

Although volunteers now represent what would have been 45 full time members of staff, this and cuts have led to the loss of the Moorsbus after 25 years service.

A replacement service, operated by the North Yorkshire Moors Association, has seen funding reduced from an allocated £100,000 to £20,000 per year.

The authority has also had to stop managing the Definitive Map of public rights of way, including designations to record rights of way before they are permanently lost and halt work on the management of Green Lanes (unsurfaced, unclassified roads)

Fiona Howie, Campaign for National Parks chief executive, said the Authority had been hit particularly hard by the cuts, which was already threatening its iconic landscape.

“Innovative public transport programmes, which were getting local people and tourists into and around the Park, have been cut; public rights of way are not being maintained and less resource is being focused on enabling young people to understand and enjoy the Park.”

Ms Howie added she was deeply concerned about the potential level of further cuts over the next five years, saying it was time for the Government to take action: “National Park Authorities should be spending time promoting our National Parks as our most treasured jewels in the crown and not having to look over their shoulder and deal with painful, piece-meal year on year cuts.”

Ouchie - Foot n Mouth ... allegedly some farmers way up North are simply throwing their dead cattle over the cliffs ... stink they do too, mind you in Whitby it used to be snakes:-) Historical.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_ZBqpEUbik

Mortal Mindy's picture

To Boldy Go ...

Erm, no, definitely not :

https://www.minds.com/blog/view/468466376596533248/new-co2-recycler-capt...

the trees the trees ...

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/MVM.DMS/Planning%20Application/811...

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/MVM.DMS/Planning%20Application/811...

http://planning.northyorkmoors.org.uk/MVM.DMS/Planning%20Application/811...

Now somewhere in amongst the carp is a NYMPA document that alludes to the deposit/bond payable by YP £176mil @ 10% (10/100) £17.6mil? The Search for Spock or can't see the wood for the trees ... must be on the satellite :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ky_gh14b010

btw sums are wrong x laters;-)

 

Mortal Mindy's picture

Resolutions

Ah we we go:

http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/planning/york-potash/Resolution-3.pdf

iv : For the entirety of the Construction Period and Post Construction Period York Potash Ltd will deposit sufficient funds in an Escrow account to cover at all times ten years’ worth of the S106 Management Plan Contribution, Core Policy D Contribution and Tourism Contribution ergo less than £17.6mil

Cheers 'GK' ;-0 now about those big sums ...

Stress testing ...

Mortal Mindy's picture

Stress Test - The Sums

Moring GK :-) " It's scary when you read someone saying "it doesn't matter how long it takes, or how much it costs..." "

So does it? Let's test that.

Accepted (by me) central case at pres: Capex = $3bn (over build phase borrow $2.5bn of that, 10% rate), Opex = $30/t, poly sale price = $120/t, mine name plate at phase2 = 13mt/y [likely actual production 11mt/y], 9 years to build to ph2 (6y to ph1 5mt/y - not 6.5) . - that lot realistic IMO.

Stress it (that's what the lenders will do).
Capex up 1.5x to $4.5bn (so borrow $4bn), Opex x1.5 to $45/t, sale price off 25% to $90/t, ph2 vol down 20% to 8mt/y, build time up 1/3rd to 12y to ph2 (9y to ph1). So with all those negative circumstances happening/modelled in, do the lenders dish the funds to build?

The central case gives YP an EBIT in 9 years at $1.0bn/y and debt servicing rising to $250m/y. If debt + interest is rolled up over 6 years (then serviced from ph1 5mt/y production from y6) debt then comes to ~ $3.5bn. From that all borrowing capital can be paid back within ~ 4 years after full production (13 years from now). that leaves 96 years of debt free production for this 100 year life mine. $96bn of earnings. Most piled into shareholders' pockets. Yeah, looks very nice.

But what of the stressed case (I hear Ahab squawk, if he hasn't already nodded off on his perch :-) )?

EBIT in 12y = 360m but debt service (C&I rolled up over 9y) will rise to ~$700m/y........Oops...........So is that where it stops? They won't lend.? End of? Possibly.

They won't lend if they conclude ALL the negatives hold at those levels throughout. Will they?

Test done and result understood. And with that I still gladly accept the risk on cost and time overrun. After all that's where the speculative potential remains. "

Working on it ... but not today :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTQbiNvZqaY

Hogwash. ""Equity research target price (risk adjusted) 25 to 60p, ER valuation 40 to 120p, project NAV per share pre construction 110 to 240p, project NPV at first production 230P to 460p". All based on the then 2.164bn issue.. "

Darn satellites :-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZkOn0-yt9E

Mortal Mindy's picture

Potash for the People

http://www.whitbygazette.co.uk/news/business/taxpayers-foot-the-1-4-plan...

"Considering the planning application to build a potash mine near Whitby has cost the taxpayer in excess of £1.4 million.

A Freedom of Information request put to the North York Moors National Park Authority reveals the levels of staffing and resources which were dedicated to the York Potash application which was first submitted in 2012 and eventually given the go-ahead a month ago."

However, the North York Moors National Park Authority has re-couped £440,000 from York Potash “to partially offset” the costs of dealing with the application and chief executive Andy Wilson revealed to the Gazette that it is in discussions with York Potash about further payments it wants the company to make after admitting the whole process “has been a problem for us” and had impacted upon other roles and functions of the authority."

Ooops :-) sleeping dogs n all that "Former borough and county councillor Jane Kenyon said the figures brought the role of the North York Moors National Park Authority into question and that it should concentrate on looking after “flora and fauna”.

She said: “The Authority should be responsible for the flora and fauna and protecting the beauty of the moors. Major decisions on economy and planning issues should be returned to unitary authorities.”

I wonder how much JK has cost the local authority ... I feel an FOI coming on .... now where was SM5 exactly? 

shame really, excavating JK's land could be most revealing ....

Mortal Mindy's picture

NYMNPA ... Strings

best not mention Nero.

http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/about-us/meetings-and-agendas/authority...

 "In conclusion, the process of implementing the Member resolution to delegate approval of the application made on 30 June, to enable the decision notice to be issued is progressing well and, at the time of writing the report, if progress continues at the current rate, it is likely that the technical and professional aspects of the work will have been completed within the timeframe envisaged."

Rome.

Mortal Mindy's picture

Elephants

http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/about-us/meetings-and-agendas/parish-fo...

Yep, indeedy ... elephants in Whitby ;-)

http://whitbypopwatch.blogspot.co.uk/2009/09/maharajah-duleep-singh.html

"For four years, between 1859 and 1853, the Maharajah rented Mulgrave Castle from the Marquis of Normanby who was then the British Ambassador in Florence. He was often seen hawking on the moors in full Indian regalia accompanied by English gamekeepers in scarlet uniforms.

The Maharajah had a road between Sandsend and Whitby constructed following in part the line of the current route. It considerably shortened the distance by road between Mulgrave Castle and Whitby. Indeed the toll booth still remains, and tolls were being collected until 1925.

Unfortunately the legend that Duleep Singh had the road built because his elephants objected to walking along the beach cannot be verified. There is no evidence that elephants ever resided at Mulgrave.

Indeed there is no evidence that elephants don't like sand between their toes, as this photograph clearly shows. Probably taken in the early 1900s, after the death of Duleep Singh, these two seem quite happy on the sands below the battery. They were probably from a visiting circus."ELEPHANTS ON WHITBY BEACH

Capt. 'Bob''s picture

Elephants & LEADER

http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/about-us/press-office/press-releases/ar...

They are just waiting for Defra & the RPA to print the forms  ... any day now ... thereafter the NYMNPA are inviting pre-applications  by Dec2015/Jan2016 with final applications to be processed & awarded Spring 2016.

The origination of the funding is from the EU.   The application process is in two stages, pre app and then to an executive group for the full application process. 

This funding is aimed at micro and small enterprises  that will boost the NYMNPA local economy.  An Urban enterprise can apply if the benefit (to include employment of one person) is within the National Park boundary.  The Funding is open to private, community and charity organisations but has to show match funding with a likely success rate of 40%  private sector 95% community sector.

Match funding can be by various means ie a bank loan or private loan.  The funding is for capital items, say a bus or shed that would allow an enterprise to grow & create at least one employment opportunity. Eligibility is criteria based with a minimum award of £5K the minimum project cost would be £ 11k.  There is £2.3mil being made available (less admin fees).  If this EU money is not used within the projected timescale it will be lost.    

The NYMNPA are not allowed to use this money for its own projects, they are merely 'agents'.

Eg, it cannot be used by the Park to fund buses, but a private enterprize could. (hint) Or mebbe a mobile library or tinternet house or rescue of an outhouse or provide inclusive access .... don't spose the Slaughtered Lamb needs a deep well ... 

Anyhow it may all seem rather inciduous but as with all 'funding' opportunities - use it or lose it. How about an elephant, park?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StGq6DoYkxw

More to come on this access to funding when it goes 'live'.

Mortal Mindy's picture

NYMNPA - S106 Agreement

NYMNPA have updated their website with the 'final' version of the S106, this had been under negotiation for some time and was AIUI being finalised last Thursday & Friday to be circulated with the other papers to be signed ready for Certification:

http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/planning/york-potash/Version-4-Draft-Se...

The amount to be placed into the Escrow account for remediation works if necessary is guestimated to be in the region of slightly more than £17.6mil. (unconfirmed)  This was of some concern due to the cashburn of the Potash Development. Tight Ships

Prior to Commencement of Construction the Park are allowing the York Potash project to (p5)  : "none of the following operations shall constitute a material operation for the purposes of constituting Commencement of Construction

i. trial holes or other operations to establish theground conditions, site survey work, or works of remediation

ii.archaeological investigations

iii. any works of demolition or site clearance (but not including soil stripping other than that in iv below) minor soil stripping for the purposes of the creation of the temporary access and lay down areas and preparation of drill pads

v. any structural planting or landscaping works

vi. ecological or nature conservation works associated with the Development

vii. construction of boundary fencing or hoardings viii. any other preparatory works agreed in writing with the NYMNPA or RCBC according to the administrative area within which the preparatory works concerned are to be undertaken

Hi ho, so 'prep' works should start next week at all sites.  Hurrah some action.

Reinstatement (P31) this is wot Gamble was on about at Pickering, A Security arrangement "such sums to be assessed by an independent surveyor''  as construction progresses, andy payable only on default. 

Payment Security (p34) (monies to be drawn down form the Escrow account if necessary.

Escrow account monies to be deposited at Commencement of Construction. ie not before Stage I financed.

The DFS is set to be complete Nov/15.  Stage I finance Q1/16 with Commencement of Construction in Spring 2016.

No doubt this 'gap' will allow procurement & strategic partners to firm up their books.

Todays RNS also points to an 'All Systems Go' :

http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/sirius-minerals/rns/regulatory-story....

Stephen Pycroft the leading light of MACE construction - Olympics, Shard etc etc

Scrapers ...  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ_REaf_1wI

"to preserve & protect for future generations"

Bots.

Mortal Mindy's picture

NYMNPA - Updated

'The six week ‘Judicial Review’ period for aggrieved parties to challenge the validity of the decision making process passed on Monday of this week without the Authority being served with any legal papers. This reflects the Authority’s commitment to a ‘robust decision making process’ which was at the heart of the Planning Performance Agreement (PPA) between the company and the Authority.

The planning approval and completed section 106 legal agreement for the York Potash Mine and MTS application was issued by the Authority on 19th October. The approval notice sets out a full set of detailed planning conditions and the accompanying s106 planning obligation amounts to a comprehensive developer contribution payable over the lifetime of the operation of the mine relating to the impacts that it will have. The company has advised that it will notify the Authority of a likely construction start date during the period of pre-commencement conditions being cleared.  This extensive work involves assessing compliance with the planning conditions which need to be discharged prior to the start of construction and will be funded through monies from the planning obligation. Meetings to progress this are likely to be held in early November.'

http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/planning/york-potash

@ Troops XX GLA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gr7FzO5aJQ

Benefitz Betty's picture

Aquostic - On The Books

http://www.scarborough.gov.uk/latest-news/rock-legends-status-quo-play-oat

"Tickets for Status Quo’s not-to-be-missed July show go on sale at 9am Monday 14 December.

Cuffe and Taylor Director Peter Taylor said:

“We have worked with Status Quo many times and what we can guarantee – as anyone who has seen them live will testify – is a great night.

“The Quo live are a full-on, power-packed jukebox of classic rock anthems guaranteed to have a crowd of any age singing and dancing. These boys were born to rock and they do not disappoint!

“They played two sell-out shows at Scarborough OAT in 2013 and 2014 and we can’t wait to welcome them back again for what promises to be a really special night at this wonderful and unique open air venue.”

Cllr Andrew Backhouse, Cabinet Member for Leisure, Tourism and Culture, added:

“The venue literally rocked to the mighty Quo in 2013 and 2014 so we’re thrilled to be working with Cuffe and Taylor to bring the legends back to Scarborough for what promises to be another stand out show.”

Led by founders Francis Rossi and Rick Parfitt, Status Quo have recorded 64 British hit singles – more than any other band – including such classics as Caroline, Pictures of Matchstick Men, Down, The Wanderer and Rockin' All Over the World.

They have just released a new 3-CD collection entitled Accept No Substitute: The Definitive Hits, and a 2-DVD set entitled, Accept No Substitute: The Definitive Hits & More through Universal Music.

Tickets for the fully seated concert are priced at £35 and are available online at www.scarboroughopenairtheatre.com or in person from the Scarborough Open Air Theatre Box Office from 9am Monday 14 December. Tickets are also available from www.ticketmaster.co.uk."

Black Books or House?  :-))

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gy3C7cMNeg

 A Little Flutter?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAXFHRdeLqw

Captain Qahn's picture

NYMPA: Updates

http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/planning/york-potash

"Since October 2015, the Authority has met with Representatives of York Potash, almost on a monthly basis, in part to receive updates on the company’s progress towards submission of detailed documentation required by the planning conditions and S106 Agreement needed to commence the development. As of mid-July the company has submitted three applications to ‘clear’ parts of the conditions relating to; Traffic Regulation Orders, protection of important roadside verges and phasing arrangements for preparatory highways works ( details are available via the Authority’s Planning Explorer ref NYM2106/0305/CVC & MYM2016/0452/CVC & NYM2016/0460/CVC respectively). The Authority has tendered for and appointed Planning Consultants ‘Savills’ to advise it in respect of the various outstanding detailed submissions required by planning conditions and S106 Agreement. The bulk of the detailed condition/s106 submissions are yet to come although arrangements are ongoing in relation to the recruitment and appointment of a dedicated post in the Planning Team to deal with the community liaison aspects and bulk of the associated applications for the project if/when funding is secured for construction."

Odd Jobs?

Not listed: http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk/about-us/job-vacancies

There is a Secretary of State Vacancy for Membership : no details yet but the last Bod for applications: 

Chris Buxton at Natural England, Foundry House, 3 Millsands, Riverside Exchange, Sheffield, S3 8NH  (telephone 0300 060 2745) or e-mail

Mind, how longs a piece of string

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-environment-f...

 

 

Benefitz Betty's picture

The Silence of the Lambs?

Twaddle:

http://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/news/opinion/tom-richmond-trains-or-...

Spin: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37600771

Front line:

http://www.gazetteherald.co.uk/news/14769748._To_pass_a_farm__fields_and...

"CASH flow and returns on farming investments in time, materials, machinery and livestock are risky. Prey to world movements in prices and politics.

Plus local and international weather conditions, scare stories in the news about for example beef and eggs and the latest whim of the latest politicians in charge of agriculture.

For example, our current Defra minister, although confirming it was “business as usual” for farming, questioned previously whether “Britain needed its own farming industry” and that “subsidies must be abolished”. Not ultra reassuring.

Add that to a Treasury statement that although farming would continue to receive the EU funding they would have got from the current system until 2020, that “options for long term reform beyond that point” needed to be considered. Not brilliant news for an industry that has to be planned well ahead.

So although milk prices have taken a turn for the better in the last week or so, the uncertainty surrounding farming continues to wreak both personal and financial havoc.

This has come home to us with a bump in the last few weeks when observing people we know close to us.

I think some blame must also lie with the financial institutions that allow individuals to plunge deeper and deeper into the money pit.

It can happen so swiftly that the money owed mounts up faster than that coming in. It is a worry facing all farmers and seems so cruel when you can see how hard everyone works.

To pass a farm, fields and barns and see them empty where once a herd grazed and over wintered, seems especially poignant. But farmers have businesses to run too and I am afraid sympathy does not pay the bills.

On a lighter note, however, and to show that hopefully you can turn a penny or two in agriculture, I have just had a book published.

Hens, Hooves, Woollies and Wellies, written by me Bobbi Mothersdale (real name) and available from Old Pond publishing on the internet, Amazon and I hope all good book shops.

It covers the entire farming year on a day-by-day basis. Calving, lambing, dipping, clipping, silaging, haymaking, harvest, getting drilled up, tupping and back again to bringing the herd home.

Much of it tongue in cheek, some of it sad, a lot of it I hope funny. Make an ideal Christmas present so please buy a copy, or two. Thank you."

Yep, some sort of censorship. One for the shelf.

Is avoiding the Clinton/Trump debate ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGXdQ298jbc

Benefitz Betty's picture

Censorship & Opportunity Knocks

Well as the Clinton/Trump (USA) is degenerating into some kind of Jeremy Kyle farce I can see some kind of opening here for Moriarty, Morality & Mortality :-)

Wee gems :

http://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/lifestyle/nostalgia/magnificent-st-m...

https://business.bt.com/solutions/small-business/communities/adopt-a-kiosk/

https://business.bt.com/solutions/small-business/communities/adopt-a-kio...

Thing is am not sure if the power supplied should create a direct line to 'dial a god' or mebbe it could be cranked up a few notches for a DIY crem... confession box.

Tic tic tic...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wcg0kWjfIFM

In progress.